With the end of the season drawing close there looks to be a six-way race for the year-end #1 ranking. As of now Serena looks to be comfortably ahead of the pack but in taking a closer look all is not as it seems. Kim, Vera, Caro & Venus are all within striking positions. Sure, Jelena is a very big dark horse in this race but I threw her in there simply because she has done it before, in 2008.
This may surprise some but Serena is looking for only her 3rd year-end #1 Even more surprising perhaps is that Venus has never done it - in fact, Venus has spent a grand total of 11 weeks at #1, period. Caroline and Vera have never been to #1 and are certainly in the mix. But... if you want to bet the house I think the best odds are on Kim finishing the year on top.
There are 4 women vying for the year-end #1 that did not win a Slam this year. This has happened 5 times before so I really think that this conversation should be put to rest - it's just not new anymore. Martina Hingis did it in '00, Lindsay Davenport in '01, '04 & '05 and Jelena accomplished the feat in '08. By the way, Lindsay's '01 & '04 years were without even getting to a Slam final.
Current Ranking - Points to Defend thru Year's End
1. Serena Williams has 6995 with 1640 to defend.
The bulk of Serena's point to defend mostly come from winning the Tour Championships in Doha last year. Serena has not played a tournament since Wimbledon and has only just hit the practice courts. If she should happen to call it a year and show up next in Australia she will surely fall from the top. And if she plays in Doha it wouldn't be the first time she's entered a tournament cold and won the title. This will be interesting.
2. Caroline Wozniacki has 5910 with 667 to defend.
Had she not sprained her ankle in Charleston she might already be #1. She doesn't have any really great results to defend except the Sf's in Doha. This is a real possibility. She could use Martina Hingis' 2000 year-end #1 run as inspiration - Martina did not win a Slam that season but sealed the deal by winning the Tour Championships at year's end.
3. Venus Williams has 5786 with 811 to defend.
This just isn't going to happen. She just doesn't play enough - which explains the tepid affair she's had with #1 as I mentioned above. Save for Serena, these other women are going to outplay her right out of serious contention.
4. Vera Zvonareva has 5550 with 381 to defend.
Like Lindsay Davenport in '05 Vera is in the position to grab the year-end top spot on the back of 2 Slam runner-up showings. Vera does not have a lot of points to defend here on out but she might get run over by someone who could roll:
5. Kim Clijsters has 5325 with 30 to defend.
After Kim won the US Open last year in her 3rd tournament back from retirement she played the event in Luxembourg and then called it a year. This year she has qualified for Doha and depending on how many tournaments she enters leading up to the Tour Championships she could easily finish 2010 as the top ranked woman. I'm hoping she sees that and goes for it.
6. Jelena Jankovic has 5205 with 1205 to defend.
Given Jelena's up-and-down play this season she is not a serious contender. There is a very slim outside chance - she'd have to run the table and hope the other ladies ahead of her falter. It's not likely.
Your needs, experiences, travel plans, skills and talents have taken a back seat to making sure the others around you are happy, safe, and nurtured on a daily basis. There is absolutely nothing pathetic about that. Kick him in the shin for me will ya, that ought to liven up the room!
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